The science of calorie deficits
The foundational principle of weight change is energy balance — calories in versus calories out. A sustained deficit of 3,500–3,850 calories produces approximately 0.5 kg of fat loss. This isn't a perfect rule (the body is more complex than a simple thermodynamic equation), but it's a reliable approximation for planning purposes.
What matters more than the size of the deficit is its sustainability. A 20% deficit that you maintain consistently for six months will produce better results than a 40% deficit you abandon after three weeks.